An interval of at least 1 month was required between the date of baseline CMV viraemia analysis mTOR inhibitor and these endpoints. The potential prognostic factors assessed were sociodemographic variables (sex, age, ethnic origin and HIV transmission category), use of any antiretroviral therapy (ART), CD4 cell counts, HIV viraemia and CMV DNA in plasma. The patients were followed from the date of the available plasma sample collection for the baseline CMV PCR to the
date of the last cohort visit before 31 December 2007. The occurrence of CMV end-organ disease or another OD did not result in follow-up being terminated. To determine the incidence and prevalence of CMV end-organ disease in the SHCS, we used data obtained for the whole population of
the cohort since 1996. ART was defined as the use of an antiretroviral drug(s), either as monotherapy or as dual therapy; HAART was defined as the use of three nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), or two NRTIs with either a protease inhibitor (PI) or a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), or four antivirals. CMV DNA was measured in plasma collected at a time when the CD4 count was ≤100 cells/μL. We used an automated CMV real-time PCR (Abbot Molecular, Des Plaines, IL, USA) with a threshold of detection of 20 copies/mL. This method is used routinely to monitor CMV infection in our institution and is described in recent publications [14–16]. In 216 samples, the quantity of plasma was insufficient and Enzalutamide mw the plasma had to be diluted (1:4) in order to measure the CMV DNA, which was positive in 67 samples (31%). The initial threshold of detection of 20 copies/mL could not be guaranteed in these samples and we therefore considered 80 copies/mL to be our global threshold in the survival analysis. The evolution of the annual
incidence rate (assessed in person-years) of CMV end-organ disease from 1996 to 2007 was analysed using Poisson regression (with the year as predictor). The exponential of the regression parameter was interpreted as a relative decrease (or increase) of the incidence rate in a given year compared with the previous year . This model allowed for different changes of the incidence rate between Org 27569 the periods 1996–1998 and 1999–2007, because the reduction in incidence was not linear over the whole observation period. The performance of the CMV DNA measurement in predicting the prognosis of CMV end-organ disease, OD and mortality was assessed using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. For each ROC curve, the area under the curve (AUC) and the confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed by bootstrap (1000 simulations). The purpose of this method  is to evaluate the performance of a marker in predicting the occurrence of an event, which can happen at different points in time. The closer the AUC is to a value of 1, the better the performance of the test. 0.5 represents an uninformative test.