This is because the accelerated sea level rise enables waves to act further up the beach

profile and cause stronger erosion. The increased storm frequency also causes significant changes on the profile. Scenario 2 produces a quite similar profile to Scenario 3. The similarity of profile change between these two scenarios indicates that an accelerated sea level rise of 3 mm year−1 and a 20% increase in storm frequency have almost the same effects on the coastline change of Darss. However, the combination of these two factors in Scenario 4 does not cause a linear effect in which the individual effects of these two factors on the profile can simply be summed. Comparison of Scenario 4 with the other two scenarios (Scenario 2 and 3) indicates that the profile evolves check details into an almost equilibrium state in these scenarios. A long-term morphological simulation cannot take into account all the processes involved, especially those stochastic processes

taking place on a short time scale (e.g. one heavy selleck inhibitor precipitation event) owing to a lack of data and practical run-time limits. In order to solve the problem of model input, concepts of ‘input reduction’ are implemented in our modelling work. ‘Input reduction’ refers to the filtering of the climate input conditions for a long-term model. Representative climate time series, which are generated by statistical analysis of the measured data and corrected by sensitivity studies, serve as input for the long-term model. A critical criterion for evaluating the reliability of the representative climate time series is whether the model computation with the representative Miconazole input conditions produces similar results to the reference data. Thus, calibration and validation of the representative time series are very important before the final application of the model. Calibration of the representative wind series in this work is based on a series of sensitivity studies in which the effects of storm frequency, wind

fetch and ordering of wind sub-groups on the coastline change are quantified. The representative wind series are validated by comparison between the model results and measured coastline change in the last 300 years. Hindcast results indicate long-term wave dynamics (wave breaking, longshore currents) and short-term storms as two dominant factors influencing the coastline change of the Darss-Zingst peninsula in the last three centuries. Compared to these two factors, long-term sea level change played a minor role in driving coastal evolution in this time period because of its relatively low rate, which is about 1 mm year−1 according to Hupfer et al. (eds.) (2003) and Ekman (2009). Morphodynamic evolution of the Darss-Zingst coastline is significantly influenced by regional climate factors such as sea level change and winds.